Nonfiction

The Premonition: A Pandemic Story

The Premonition: A Pandemic Story

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  • Create Date：2022-05-25 09:52:15
  • Update Date：2025-09-06
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  • Author：Michael Lewis
  • ISBN：1324035536
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Summary

Fortunately， we are still a nation of skeptics。 Fortunately， there are those among us who study pandemics and are willing to look unflinchingly at worst-case scenarios。 Michael Lewis’s taut and brilliant nonfiction thriller pits a band of medical visionaries against the wall of ignorance that was the official response of the Trump administration to the outbreak of COVID-19。


The characters you will meet in these pages are as fascinating as they are unexpected。 A thirteen-year-old girl’s science project on transmission of an airborne pathogen develops into a very grown-up model of disease control。 A local public-health officer uses her worm’s-eye view to see what the CDC misses， and reveals great truths about American society。 A secret team of dissenting doctors， nicknamed the Wolverines， has everything necessary to fight the pandemic: brilliant backgrounds， world-class labs， prior experience with the pandemic scares of bird flu and swine flu…everything， that is， except official permission to implement their work。


Michael Lewis is not shy about calling these people heroes for their refusal to follow directives that they know to be based on misinformation and bad science。 Even the internet， as crucial as it is to their exchange of ideas， poses a risk to them。 They never know for sure who else might be listening in。

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Reviews

skip thurnauer ，

I was intrigued when I heard Michael Lewis say on a podcast that other countries cited implementing the U。S。 pandemic plan as the reason they had lower rates of Covid hospitalizations and deaths than the America。 What？ The Premonition tells the story of the U。S。's preparation for pandemics through the intersecting stories of several visionaries - physicians， health officers， scientists， and others who influenced the country's response to Covid。 The story begins with 13 year old Laura Glass's sci I was intrigued when I heard Michael Lewis say on a podcast that other countries cited implementing the U。S。 pandemic plan as the reason they had lower rates of Covid hospitalizations and deaths than the America。 What？ The Premonition tells the story of the U。S。's preparation for pandemics through the intersecting stories of several visionaries - physicians， health officers， scientists， and others who influenced the country's response to Covid。 The story begins with 13 year old Laura Glass's science project at Jefferson Middle School in Albuquerque。 Dr。 Charity Dean bucks the system to eradicate disease as a the chief health officer of Santa Barbara County and later the state of California。 Pandemic planning in the U。S。 was "more or less invented" after George W。 Bush read John Barry's "The Great Influenza" and requested a pandemic plan。 Dr。 Rajeev Venkayya wrote the first draft of that plan over a weekend in his parent's Ohio home。 Joe DeRisi created a unique computer weapon for identifying viruses in his computer lab at the U。 of California-San Francisco。 Out-of-the-box thinkers and problem solvers Richard Hatchett and Carter Mecher stirred the pot and crossed political and disciplinary lines to help create the plans and vaccines that would save thousands of lives。 Lewis helps make the science and mathematics of the pandemic story not only readable， but entertaining 。。。more

Gary Harbison ，

Fascinating and disturbing look at how dedicated scientists and community servants had to work outside the lines to guide our pandemic response into rational territory。

Sandy ，

Great read， if you want to see behind the scenes and understand who really was working the problem of the pandemic this is it。 There are brilliant， out of box thinkers who cared about saving lives and worked the problem regardless of what higher ups were doing， saying or thinking。 They saw what was coming， banded together under the radar and tried to raise the alarm， you see that the system is broken and those who have power to take action weren't listening， which has a lot to do with how we've Great read， if you want to see behind the scenes and understand who really was working the problem of the pandemic this is it。 There are brilliant， out of box thinkers who cared about saving lives and worked the problem regardless of what higher ups were doing， saying or thinking。 They saw what was coming， banded together under the radar and tried to raise the alarm， you see that the system is broken and those who have power to take action weren't listening， which has a lot to do with how we've hobbled the CDC over the last 40 years， disenfranchised local health departments and again those who lead have agendas that don't include the greater good of its citizens， locally or nationally。 We should never have lost so many loved ones during the pandemic。 And before we have another one we need to get our priorities straight and see who the real experts are and listen。 。。。more

Laurel ，

I enjoyed the well researched first part of this book， a history of previous infectious diseases and the role of Public Health Officers。 Once the COVID 19 Pandemic arrived， the book became chaotic and confusing to follow。 Maybe Part II is just a mirror of how hard it is to figure things out when you are in the midst of a fast spreading， highly infectious killer disease。 I admired the fast decisions public health officials have to make- they are the only people who truly understands exponential g I enjoyed the well researched first part of this book， a history of previous infectious diseases and the role of Public Health Officers。 Once the COVID 19 Pandemic arrived， the book became chaotic and confusing to follow。 Maybe Part II is just a mirror of how hard it is to figure things out when you are in the midst of a fast spreading， highly infectious killer disease。 I admired the fast decisions public health officials have to make- they are the only people who truly understands exponential growth。 Five stars for Part I， 4 stars for Part II and Part III。 。。。more

Leif ，

This is about half the story that I hoped Lewis would tell。 Really， it focuses on a few key individuals， when the pandemic window was much， much greater。 But it's also a thrillingly told history that， true to Lewis' previous works， focuses on the figures who don't make the news， but who shape it for better or for worse。 This is about half the story that I hoped Lewis would tell。 Really， it focuses on a few key individuals， when the pandemic window was much， much greater。 But it's also a thrillingly told history that， true to Lewis' previous works， focuses on the figures who don't make the news， but who shape it for better or for worse。 。。。more

Maggie Holmes ，

This book should be read by everyone， but especially anyone in government or interested in politics。 Talk about dysfunctional。 Neither states nor federal government have a clue about how to respond or communicate about real health emergencies。 All the officials only want to protect their jobs。 That was the depressing part of the book。 The exciting part of the book is the heroic actions of several people who were able to develop new technology to follow and pinpoint viral spread， or who were able This book should be read by everyone， but especially anyone in government or interested in politics。 Talk about dysfunctional。 Neither states nor federal government have a clue about how to respond or communicate about real health emergencies。 All the officials only want to protect their jobs。 That was the depressing part of the book。 The exciting part of the book is the heroic actions of several people who were able to develop new technology to follow and pinpoint viral spread， or who were able to use data （including a young girl working on a science fair project） to figure out what methods would best limit the spread。 Hint: young kids stuffed in classrooms and on buses is not a good idea。 The only administration that came out looking any good was Bush's。 But then 9/11 shifted the focus。 The science that was explained was also really interesting。 Also， TESTING， TESTING， TESTING and then evaluate genomic changes in the tests。 Also， unless there are changes， the CDC is useless。 。。。more

Naveen ，

This Premonition explains the United States poor response to the Covid 19 pandemic showcasing both the development of a plan from the Bush presidency and a group of dedicated public servants to the squandering of opportunity and lack of initiative from the CDC and the Trump administration。 Lewis explains the plight of local health officers: their power but also lack of support。 He speaks to the CDC as a good post mortem institution but not one that actually controls diseases with effective respo This Premonition explains the United States poor response to the Covid 19 pandemic showcasing both the development of a plan from the Bush presidency and a group of dedicated public servants to the squandering of opportunity and lack of initiative from the CDC and the Trump administration。 Lewis explains the plight of local health officers: their power but also lack of support。 He speaks to the CDC as a good post mortem institution but not one that actually controls diseases with effective responses given the risk of being wrong and what that would do to reputations and careers。 He provides insight into the the Trump administration unwillingness to deal with the the need for social distancing and making hard decisions to its lack of funding for pandemic response that was previously funded in other administrations。 He makes it clear we don’t lack the skills or the knowledge in the United States but our institutions are lacking in their ability or willingness or even written purpose to effectively execute in a crisis。 。。。more

Kevin Thang ，

The Premonition centers around the 2020 pandemic and the main players in USA that took charge of the response to the citizens of specifically California， when the CDC did not have an idea of what to do。Charity Dean being the ‘main character’ of this book， as she led and helped create the guidelines to dealing with the coronavirus。 Michael Lewis starts by going back in history to look at previous pandemics and how countries did it did not learn from earlier mistakes。

Susan Bruchanski ，

I laughed a bit but I cried ALOT。 I LOVED this book even though it was gravely disturbing！！

Brian Kramp ，

This is a pretty interesting book about the pandemic， centered around Charity Dean in the California Public Health Department， and how she and some researchers and federal government people tried to get the government to be prepared and take action leading up to and during the early months of the pandemic。 It's pretty interesting but it's also overdramatic， like most of Lewis's recent work。Interesting quotes:"There's no shortcut to courage。 Courage is a muscle memory。"When you're trying to find This is a pretty interesting book about the pandemic， centered around Charity Dean in the California Public Health Department， and how she and some researchers and federal government people tried to get the government to be prepared and take action leading up to and during the early months of the pandemic。 It's pretty interesting but it's also overdramatic， like most of Lewis's recent work。Interesting quotes:"There's no shortcut to courage。 Courage is a muscle memory。"When you're trying to find the root of a problem you have to make more than one visit， because on the first visit people assume you’re just trying to point fingers at the problem。 On the second visit they realize you care and will help you find the problem。 。。。more

Katrina Harris ，

There are so many unsung heroes of the covid 19 pandemic - and the CDC isn’t among them。 It was interesting to read this right after finishing Zero Fail about the rise and fall of the Secret Service。 The similarities between the CDC and secret service are uncanny - especially in their failures。

Elaine ，

3。5 rounded up。 I had a sense that so much was edited out， eg。 SARS in Toronto in 2003， that I questioned credibility and comprehensiveness。 His focus is on the U。S。， obviously， but it would have been nice to have a better sense of the preparation and response in other countries just for context。 But that would have made a longer and less dramatic read。 It's a very American book celebrating rogue individualists。 3。5 rounded up。 I had a sense that so much was edited out， eg。 SARS in Toronto in 2003， that I questioned credibility and comprehensiveness。 His focus is on the U。S。， obviously， but it would have been nice to have a better sense of the preparation and response in other countries just for context。 But that would have made a longer and less dramatic read。 It's a very American book celebrating rogue individualists。 。。。more

Carlos Torres ，

Like everything he writes， Lewis makes thrillers of otherwise uninteresting topics。 Here he follows several persons who saw the pandemic and had a plan， even though， the US Govt did not。 L6 will be my new phrase…

Katie ，

As frustrating as it is fascinating， this is an interesting look at the snafu that is the American public health system。 What a shit show。 At least this book reinforces that there are still some smart people trying to solve problems。

Ronnie Yee ，

Good read about the important persons behind the management of the COVID-19 response in the states。 It seems rather contradictory that the world's top medical system could not seize the opportunity to control the pandemic at its bud， rather allowing it to snowball into a huge mess that destroys countless lives。 An overhaul of the governance is needed to reinstate public trust in public health and their recommendations， though this book highlights the challenges and resistance of such intertwines Good read about the important persons behind the management of the COVID-19 response in the states。 It seems rather contradictory that the world's top medical system could not seize the opportunity to control the pandemic at its bud， rather allowing it to snowball into a huge mess that destroys countless lives。 An overhaul of the governance is needed to reinstate public trust in public health and their recommendations， though this book highlights the challenges and resistance of such intertwines of politics and science。 。。。more

Sharon S。 Smith ，

eye openingAn amazing account of pandemics， the strategies that work， and the amazing physicians who tried to employ these common sense strategies。

Linda McCune ，

A book about how the pandemic was botched by the government。

Tim O'Hearn ，

Michael Lewis at his best。 Makes a mockery of the United States pandemic response and the failings of government at all levels。 As always， smart people who risk everything to think outside of the box are the heroes of the book。 Seems too short and with an unsatisfying conclusion。

MJ Robinson ，

Eye opener about the behind the scenes US response to the COVID pandemic。

Robert ，

A great read。 As someone who works in infectious disease epidemiology， has worked to understand what people think about COVID -19 and tried to increase COVID-19 vaccine uptake， I am well acquainted with these stories but they way they are told here are so clear and accessible。 I teach my students chunks of this history in public health decision making， but feel like this will be a key read for the students in my Evidence Based Decision Making class。

David ，

Michael Lewis （Moneyball， among his other books） crafts a fascinating recent history of the people who hunt viruses and try to manage pandemics。 This tells of a predictive model of pandemics that was developed by a 13 year old girl as a science project that fairly accurately described the Covid-19 pandemic 15 years later。 It tells of how George W。 Bush read a book about pandemics and insisted on preparing a response。 The role of public health officials shatters any illusion of a unified response Michael Lewis （Moneyball， among his other books） crafts a fascinating recent history of the people who hunt viruses and try to manage pandemics。 This tells of a predictive model of pandemics that was developed by a 13 year old girl as a science project that fairly accurately described the Covid-19 pandemic 15 years later。 It tells of how George W。 Bush read a book about pandemics and insisted on preparing a response。 The role of public health officials shatters any illusion of a unified response to public health。 And the sad truth that nothing gets done in a fractured health care system that is designed for profit， not health。 The heroes are unexpected， but often they are the ones who operate outside the parameters of their professions: it may be shocking （or not） but the CDC is not exactly the bottom line on anything。 This is an excellent book。 As the blurb on the back so colorfully puts it "I would read an 800 page history of the stapler if he wrote it。" 。。。more

Ron Scheese ，

Great read！！ Classic Michael LewisJust finished "The Premonition: A Pandemic Story" by Michael Lewis。This is classic Lewis。 He takes a complex subject， identifies the contrarian heroes and tells their story。 Think what "Moneyball" did for baseball or "The Big Short" did for the housing market crash and "Thr Premonition" does for the pandemic。Lewis examines a small group of individuals who were pulled together in the Bush admistration to prepare for a pandemic。 He also shows us why things didn't Great read！！ Classic Michael LewisJust finished "The Premonition: A Pandemic Story" by Michael Lewis。This is classic Lewis。 He takes a complex subject， identifies the contrarian heroes and tells their story。 Think what "Moneyball" did for baseball or "The Big Short" did for the housing market crash and "Thr Premonition" does for the pandemic。Lewis examines a small group of individuals who were pulled together in the Bush admistration to prepare for a pandemic。 He also shows us why things didn't go according to plan as COVID made its way across the globe and then the US。It's more about these individuals and the system。 There's plenty of CDC， Trump， and government bashing to both anger and appease both sides of the political aisle。Perhaps enough of us will read it to begin to reduce the rhetoric and begin to manage the current pandemic better and prepare for the next one 。。。more

Beth ，

Oh the irony of reading this book and getting Covid right in the middle of it！ This engrossing book tells the story of what took place 10 years prior to the pandemic。 The story highlights several smart local public health officials， researchers and data scientists who assembled to hammer out a nationwide pandemic response plan at the behest of the Bush （43） administration。 The stories of dealing with government bureaucracy and CDC shortcomings （to put it mildly） are enlightening and frustrating。 Oh the irony of reading this book and getting Covid right in the middle of it！ This engrossing book tells the story of what took place 10 years prior to the pandemic。 The story highlights several smart local public health officials， researchers and data scientists who assembled to hammer out a nationwide pandemic response plan at the behest of the Bush （43） administration。 The stories of dealing with government bureaucracy and CDC shortcomings （to put it mildly） are enlightening and frustrating。 The second half of the book looks at the heroic efforts by some of these same individuals， along with other heroes， who try to help several states implement some of their own mitigation and prediction strategies when those we depended on to lead were lacking the will to do so。 。。。more

Yvor ，

Excellent book。 Well written。 Entertaining and informative。 Sheds significant light on American preparedness--or lack thereof--for the current COVID-19 pandemic and a few of the public health warriors willing to "go to the mat" to protect our public health。 Excellent book。 Well written。 Entertaining and informative。 Sheds significant light on American preparedness--or lack thereof--for the current COVID-19 pandemic and a few of the public health warriors willing to "go to the mat" to protect our public health。 。。。more

Robbin ，

I found the book interesting in some parts but overall boring。 It could have been half the amount of pages had some of the small snippets that didn’t have to do with anything were left out。 I do not recommend。

Nathaniel ，

This book never came together。 It wanted to be a kind of real-life version of a disaster movie。 You know how it goes: there's an imminent threat to humanity， all the usual institutions and leaders are blind to the danger and/or refuse to take the brave necessary steps to address it， but a plucky band of misfit heroes band together with the insight and bravery to save the day。 It wanted to be that story or the tragic version of it， where institutional inertia prevent the plucky heroes from saving This book never came together。 It wanted to be a kind of real-life version of a disaster movie。 You know how it goes: there's an imminent threat to humanity， all the usual institutions and leaders are blind to the danger and/or refuse to take the brave necessary steps to address it， but a plucky band of misfit heroes band together with the insight and bravery to save the day。 It wanted to be that story or the tragic version of it， where institutional inertia prevent the plucky heroes from saving the day and we all learn a stark moral lesson。 But the biggest problem， from my perspective， is that it's entirely unclear the plucky heroes in this book actually knew what they were doing。I believe all the negative stuff in the book。 The CDC certainly sounds wildly dysfunctional， at least in its role of controlling （as opposed to studying） diseases。 A lot of this is pretty basic stuff to an economist， though。 As Milton Friedman （and many， many others） have pointed out， bureaucrats can have really screwed up incentives。 If the FDA approves a drug and a dozen people die， heads roll。 if the FDA doesn't approve a drug and hundreds of people die， there are no consequences。 This kind of perverse incentive is very common in bureaucracies and over time it can lead to institutionalized cowardice。 That seems to be pretty much what happened to the CDC when， in response to a swine flu epidemic in 1976， they fast-tracked a vaccine。 The problem is that the epidemic never really materialized on a grand scale and the vaccine wasn't entirely safe。 According to the analysis in the book， this led everyone to conclude the CDC had dramatically overstepped its bounds。 In turn， the CDC's wings were clipped and， by the 2020s， it was utterly incapable of doing anything significant to guide the US through the Covid pandemic。Another major historical blunder， the social distancing measures of 1918 were incorrectly deemed （in hindsight） to have been ineffective， when a new batch of revisionist studies concluded that they actually might have had great effect。 So the conventional wisdom， leading up to Covid， was that "social distancing" was ineffectual when it actually might have been really useful。I say "might" because this is where the book really， really fell down for me。 Did social distancing actually work？ Were our plucky band of heroes correct？ If we'd listened， would America's experience have been much better？ Would hundreds of thousands of victims still be alive？This seems like the vital question， and the book doesn't even seriously attempt to address it。That's deeply telling。 It makes this book seem a lot less like a kind of dispassionate， scientific analysis and a lot more like a kind of dogmatic dirge。 If only we'd listened to the experts。But let's review a couple of basics。First， the plucky band of heroes in this book put huge emphasis on school closures as a way to stop the spread under the assumption that children would be efficient transmitters of the disease。 How did that work out？ I honestly don't know， but my understanding is the data is far from clear that school closures had a huge impact。 The benefit is very complicated to ascertain， and the book doesn't even try。 I honestly can't tell--at the end--if the author or the experts still think school closures were a good approach。 As for the costs， well， we know that a year of isolation had a terrible toll on the academic and psychological health of children， that this costs were born most heavily on poor and minority children， and that areas where schools were closed least also had the least differential impact on poor and minority kids。 If the plucky band of heroes had been in charge， schools would almost certainly have been closed nation-wide and much earlier。 Would that have had a positive impact？ And would that positive impact have been worth the cost to children？ The book never even takes up the question， which I find shocking。Overall， the conclusion of the book is that America--far from being the most advanced in our reaction （even though we were the only nation with a pandemic plan ahead of time）--was a kind of bad example to the whole world。 I find this absurd。 Does anyone really think our response was worse than China's， for example？ Their statistics are almost certainly fabricated， their vaccine is ineffective， and to this day they are facing widespread economic costs and social unrest without any clear indication that they are actually benefitting from their draconian （and increasingly unobtainable） zero Covid approach。 The reality is that although there was a lot of dysfunction in the United States' reaction， it is far from clear that either that our response will--in the long run--turn out to be substantially worse than average or that the recommendations of these experts would have actually had a material effect for the better。Don't get me wrong， I'm not arguing that the US did well。 I just took a gander at deaths-per-100，000 according to Johns Hopkins and the US looks very， very bad。 Maybe we did to horribly！ I would not be surprised！ I'm not acting out of some kind of knee-jerk defensiveness。 I don't know。 And I would expect a book like this to make the case。 Because my understanding is that the jury is still out （other countries that have avoided Covid so far may yet face much more risk than the US） and the numbers are uncertain （I've heard reports that deaths have been underreported by huge margins， which could mean the country-to-country comparisons are unreliable）。Something else that doesn't get adequate consideration （or any at all， in this book） is that overconfidence in experts can lead to more deaths。 The textbook example of this is the way that New York insisted on shipping covid patients from hospitals to old folks' homes。 This policy was based on expert predictions of the impact of Covid on hospital occupancy。 The idea was that we'd be overwhelmed （like Italy was） and so we had to get people out of hospitals ASAP to clear up space。 Except that we never ended up facing a crisis like Italy did。 Our resources were absolutely stretched thin （especially the beleaguered front line workers）， but the models were wrong， the tidal wave of cases never arrived， and all those vulnerable elderly folks who were sent out of hospitals back to elderly care facilities spread Covid and resulted in huge numbers of avoidable deaths。 Not because the experts were ignored， but because they were followed。This is what I mean by a kind of religious dogma: it's not the case that all experts are equal。 Nicholas Taleb writes about this at great length with particular disdain for the type of expert who predicts things based on models。 We， as a society， are kind of addicted to the myth that experts can predict things when in most studies they do very poorly。This isn't a categorical critique of all expertise。 I want an experienced surgeon to work on me if I need surgery， not some random dude or even "the wisdom of the crowds"。 But expertise isn't equally valid in all circumstances， and expert predictions are particularly suspect。 So "trust the experts"--without any context or critical analysis--is itself about as scientific as holding onto Dumbo's feather。 Which experts？ In which kinds of situations？ And to what extent？These are all serious questions that could be addressed with a lot of research and theory from relevant fields。。。 none of which exists in this book。 That's because the disaster movie narrative is so engrossing that it's all we get。 Really vivid portrayals of really interesting characters in really tense situations。 Lots of drama！ A good read！But does it actually mean anything？ At the end， have you really been educated as well as entertained？ In this case。。。 not really。 。。。more

Richard Veilleux ，

So， the pandemic of the last 2 years has been horrendous。 This book gives some background on the people and agencies that tried to fight Covid-19 and why they failed so miserably。 It is highly readable， with lots of anecdotes about the personalities of people involved in epidemiology。 The CDC does not shine too brightly in this accounting， maybe rightly so。 It is good to get another view of whay we have been witnessing thought media coverage。 At least we will be prepared next time。 Hah！

Debra Shelton Windham ，

As I read Michael Lewis’s The Premonition: A Pandemic Story， I was captivated， furious， and scared to death that America would bumble its way through another， even more deadly， pandemic in the very near future because we’ve learned absolutely NOTHING by the way we miserably failed to plan and contain COVID-19 when we initially had the time to do so。I encourage everyone who can to get a copy of this enlightening book and to read it as quickly as possible。

Katie-Ellen Hazeldine ，

A riveting- and terrifying read。 Science， medicine and politics - when， how and why inconvenient truths are not proactively addressed。 And when they are not， the collateral damage is the very real risk of mass death。 Ours。 This book is a fascinating potted education in its own right， extraordinary stories， human behaviour， strategic and tactical thinking， risk mitigation， risk avoidance， and the the wasteful， inertia of institutions supposedly there to serve public health。 More than this， the bo A riveting- and terrifying read。 Science， medicine and politics - when， how and why inconvenient truths are not proactively addressed。 And when they are not， the collateral damage is the very real risk of mass death。 Ours。 This book is a fascinating potted education in its own right， extraordinary stories， human behaviour， strategic and tactical thinking， risk mitigation， risk avoidance， and the the wasteful， inertia of institutions supposedly there to serve public health。 More than this， the book is an exposition of the agility-perhaps we should call it intelligence- of viruses， and the workings of Nature itself。 。。。more

David Bradshaw ，

Trump is a comorbidity

Reference

google book https://www.google.com/search?tbm=bks&q=The Premonition: A Pandemic Story

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The British Library https://bll01.primo.exlibrisgroup.com/discovery/search?query=any,contains,The Premonition: A Pandemic Story&tab=LibraryCatalog&search_scope=Not_BL_Suppress&vid=44BL_INST:BLL01&lang=en&offset=0